CIC 44th Draw Prediction, OINP Nominations & Immigration Policy Changes

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Hello Readers,

Update – As expected in this post before, CIC posted 44th draw with 484 CRS score and 1,518 invite on October 12th 2016, which is 100% inline with our prediction for this draw. Hope these scores go down soon for our aspirants.

It’s 5th October 2016, going by the trends in the past CIC is expected to release its 44th draw today. Candidates are anxiously waiting for the draw information update which is usually announced at 12:00 UTC.

Number of factors have played in today’s draw like BC PNP has released 600+ ITA’s recently which will add points to the candidate profiles leading to ITA’s. On the other hand OINP although lagging deliberately in issuing nominations has issued almost 150+ nominations in past couple of weeks. All these candidates will be added to the pool of qualifying candidates of the next draw. In the 43rd draw, 1288 candidates with a score of 483 and above were invited. Keeping in mind that almost 750 candidates have been issued PNP during these 2 weeks we expect either scores to go higher and stay around 490 or CIC may increase the number of invitations upto around 1,500 which will lead to drop in scores needed for ITA.

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Our prediction for this 44th CIC draw is a score of 478-487 with ITA’s staying in the bracket of 1100-1500. CIC is trying to clear it’s huge backlog but we believe it’s still not enough right now. It will take at least 3 more draws before we see scores moving down to the range of 465. 

We received a lot of enquiries where we saw people who filled up for OINP applications last year are still waiting for nominations. Some of them are still awaiting AOR. This confirms that OINP processing time has increased drastically. It may be due to number of factors like CIC instructions or huge backlog but this has definitely affected a lot of candidates. Our source has confirmed that OINP is working at 40% of their usual speed and awaiting instructions from CIC. Once the new immigration policy changes are announced and implemented, we expect some movement in the applications.

The Immigration policy change announcement is currently overdue and we do not expect it to come anytime in October. It’s expected that the mid year report which is also overdue will be announced this month, while the changes in the policy are expected to be announced in November 2016.

A lot of expectations are mounting on CIC with aspirants worried about scores to drop and the invitations to rise, since the pool is building up with a huge backlog of candidates in the score range of 400-450. People who were expected to be treated fairly in this system ex. International Graduates are the worst sufferers with their work permits expiring despite having considerably higher scores.

We expect CIC to announce and implement these changes soon, however a lot depends on how the 44th draw performs on 5th October 2016.

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Rachael Clark is an Immigration Consultant with an experience of over 7 years working with candidates across Europe. With a success rate of over 80% candidates receiving provincial nomination, Rachael writes on a number of subjects. More information is published on OOPNP.com

45 thoughts on “CIC 44th Draw Prediction, OINP Nominations & Immigration Policy Changes

  • October 5, 2016 at 11:19 am
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    Really hoping it drops below 480 today, surely you think that must be playing on CICS mind as well as pool is getting packed with people below 481 now since May..

    But just hope the PNPS are not a deciding factor

    Reply
    • mm
      October 5, 2016 at 1:36 pm
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      Completely understood but we hope some of the past ones must have been nominated by BC to clear backlog before issuing 637 ITA’s. All these nominations will add up to the 44th draw.

      Reply
  • October 5, 2016 at 2:02 pm
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    How many candi482dates can be expected to in the pool at CRS of 480-482?

    Reply
  • October 5, 2016 at 2:27 pm
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    In addition, the worst sufferers are:
    1) Bilingual candidates, those who has French as one the language proficiency in Express Entry and

    2) Professionals in NOC A occupations admitted with a Regulatory Body in Canada such as Doctors, Lawyers, Optimetry, etc… as no additional significant points are awarded like those who get a Certificate of Qualification under Skill Trade.

    Reply
    • mm
      October 5, 2016 at 3:00 pm
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      I completely agree to it, when the system was introduced we imagined this to be a fair system for everyone but as the scores go higher and ITA’s drop things have taken different turn.

      Reply
      • October 5, 2016 at 3:43 pm
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        Yes, it is so unfair that those Professionals in NOC A are given the same amount of points no matter where the latter is licensed, whether Outside Canada or Within Canada. Those who got licensed Within Canada should have been given significant Additional Points and should not be treated in the same way as those who got licensed abroad.

        Any chances for ITA:

        a) My score is 390 but I got Canadian Education and French as my second language proficiency. Do you think with the reforms, I might get a chance for ITA? OR

        b) If not for possibility (a), I’ve taken the French test again to maximise my grade and insert it as my First Language as a way to get Ontario Nomination?

        For each possibility (a) and (b), what are my chances?

        Thanks a lot for your support in this forum.

        Reply
        • October 5, 2016 at 4:00 pm
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          I mean for French, I had to put it as my second language as presently I score over CLB 7 in each section, except the Writing part I’ve score CLB 6, thus failed to meet to first language benchmark (by only 5 points) in Writing. That’s why I’ve taken it again.

          The Minister said he will ease some of the rules for International Students, after which he mentioned about the LMIA separately. From his assertion, is it likely that the work experience requirement and proof of funds compulsory requirement for those not eligible under CEC (because lack of Canadian work experience) be removed?

          Reply
  • October 5, 2016 at 4:17 pm
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    Any idea how much points might be awarded for Post-Graduate Certificate and for French as second language?

    Reply
    • mm
      October 5, 2016 at 4:43 pm
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      Quite a lot actually you stand to gain upto 25 points from these total. Sometimes more if it’s WES verified.

      Reply
      • October 5, 2016 at 4:55 pm
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        I mean for Post-Graduate Certificate as Canadian Education and French as Second Language under the proposed reforms. I understand there is no guarantee and precision but any speculation?

        Reply
  • October 5, 2016 at 4:19 pm
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    Is it likely that the 1 year work experience and proof of funds requirement be removed for those who has Canadian Education?

    Reply
    • mm
      October 5, 2016 at 4:42 pm
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      We understand proof of funds requirements can be replaced by 3 month salary slips, tax information but the requirement for work experience may not be removed completely. How CIC manages this remains to be seen.

      Reply
      • October 5, 2016 at 4:51 pm
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        Why the Minister said with respect to International Students “ease some of the rules…some rules no longer necessary…lack of work experience in their field, thus they received no treatment in Express Entry and had to leave…ease PR route after graduation….”? After which he dealt separately with LMIA. At present those eligible under CEC are exempted from Proof of Funds and so he might not mean Proof of Funds when he said ease some of rules.

        For instance, in Québec, no work experience requirement for International Student is imposed in order to be eligible under the Quebec Experience Class.

        How the reforms will be announced remained to be seen.

        Reply
  • October 5, 2016 at 4:45 pm
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    Hi Rachel,
    Any news about how many points will be awarded to the candidates ,who have siblings in Canada in the new policy.
    As my wife and I have siblings in Canada.

    Reply
  • October 6, 2016 at 9:25 am
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    Hi, Any guesses now why the draw may not have taken place ? Or should we expect one this week?

    Reply
    • mm
      October 6, 2016 at 11:54 am
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      I am expecting a draw on Friday with similar CRS and ITA’s.

      Reply
      • October 6, 2016 at 1:36 pm
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        Similar CRS and ITA’s meaning?

        Reply
      • October 6, 2016 at 4:56 pm
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        Maybe not having 3 draws in November is one of the reasons?

        Reply
        • October 6, 2016 at 5:07 pm
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          I assume the reforms will be there at latest in November anyway, when the Minister announced its immigration level for 2017. That’s why they might have decide to have an additional draw post-reform. By now, it can happen at any time, we don’t know!

          Reply
  • October 6, 2016 at 4:32 pm
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    May be they are working on the reforms?

    Reply
  • October 6, 2016 at 7:50 pm
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    Hi Rachael,

    You previously said in your post dated Aug 11, that the Minister is likely to award additional points in the range 5-20 for Canadian Education, depending on the level completed.

    But I’ve heard in a video that McCallum said students with Canadian Education will be awarded “Significant Additional Points”.

    Did your speculation change since then? Or do you consider the range 5-20 as significant?

    I think these additional points are very little though. Still students will never get ITA as most freshly graduates score in the range 365 and other under the CEC score around 450. The issue will not be resolved.

    Reply
  • October 7, 2016 at 1:36 am
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    Hi,

    My Score is 442 and I am currently living in Canada. My work permit is going to expire in the month of Feb 2017. Are there any chances that I may get a ITA or what would be a best alternative. To be honest, I am stuck now and not sure what to do. Would really appreciate you feedback.

    Reply
    • mm
      October 13, 2016 at 5:51 pm
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      442 is not getting ITA anytime sooner than next 6 months. If your WP is expiring move to a visitor permit or read my email, we can hook you up with a suitable profile to get your extension.
      Check your email.

      Reply
  • October 7, 2016 at 8:30 pm
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    No draw today again? Does that mean next week again

    Reply
  • October 7, 2016 at 8:44 pm
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    Strange that there is no draw, although it is inferred they are done with the backlog, according to CIC employee which everyone know via video “CIC guy”

    It is speculating that the reforms might be announced during Citizenship Day as from October 10, this Monday.

    If anyone get any sources from articles, please do post it. I find this website better with articles than canadavisa.

    Reply
    • October 8, 2016 at 4:37 pm
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      Hello is this CIC guy from the video seminar in May 2016 on youtube or has there been another since. Feel like the lifeblood is being drained away from me waiting in the pool. Thanks

      Reply
  • October 11, 2016 at 9:28 am
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    Hi Rachael any draw expected tomorrow? The No of PNPs being issued would a play a deciding factor again in the points being higher? I’m sure CiC would be looking at a 1500_2000 ITas? Whats your guess the samd still?

    Reply
  • October 12, 2016 at 1:22 pm
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    No draws announced yet. What could be the reason for this?

    Reply
  • October 12, 2016 at 9:24 pm
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    I’m tired waiting when policy change will be announced. There was speculation since April and that’s funny as I’ve already go for holiday and decided to re-take the language test again which I decided not to take earlier as I thought the reforms would have been announced in June because it is simple to implement it through ministerial instructions rather than having to go through parliament. I’ve done all these things and still no reforms announced.

    Reply
  • October 13, 2016 at 7:08 pm
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    Hi Rachel,
    I have a crs score of 453, when do you think are my chances of getting an ITA?

    Reply
    • mm
      October 14, 2016 at 1:04 pm
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      Hi, sorry to say but very less chance at 453 currently, GO FOR PNP strong suggestion.

      Reply
  • October 14, 2016 at 10:49 am
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    Hi ,
    Hope you are doing well! my points are 476, do you think we can expect this cut off any time soon?

    I have been waiting since August for this cut off 🙁

    Regards
    Vinayak

    Reply
    • mm
      October 14, 2016 at 1:04 pm
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      476 should come in possibly at least 2-3 draws, keeping in mind CIC forced a draw of 484 at 1500 cut-off, i can imagine a lot of candidates are stuck in 479-483 points it will take 2-3 draws to clear them before the CRS comes down. Unless it’s due to a policy change expect 2-3 draws.

      Reply
  • October 14, 2016 at 1:40 pm
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    Hi Rachel,
    I have a crs score of 462, when do you think are my chances of getting an ITA in this year ?

    Reply
    • mm
      October 15, 2016 at 1:38 pm
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      462 does stand a chance this year wait n watch.

      Reply
  • October 16, 2016 at 12:33 pm
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    Hi Rachael,

    In 29th Sep-16 We got AOR for french speaking stream under OINP, when do you think we can get the nomination?

    REGARDS,

    Reply
    • mm
      October 16, 2016 at 3:15 pm
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      If you have AOR, expect around 6 months before you get nomination if everything in file goes well.

      Reply
  • October 25, 2016 at 3:41 pm
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    Hi – my crs score is around 385, how do i stand a chance? which provinces can i try? what are the chances for Ontario, British Columbia or Alberta?

    Reply
    • mm
      October 26, 2016 at 2:22 pm
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      Try LMIA roles or PNP like SINP or PEI, Ontario will need above 400.

      Email us at – focusgroupcanada at gmail dot com for our consultancy.

      Reply

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